Can The 3.5% Rule Save America? 

On the cusp of the 250th anniversary of America, the March 28th No Kings protest might be our last chance to change the course of history

In 2013, political scientist Erica Chenoweth proposed the 3.5% rule, which argued that according to historical data from 1900 to 2006, whenever nonviolent protests against an authoritarian regime reached the tipping point of 3.5% of a country’s population, that government was almost always certain to fall. There was something about that number that created a tipping point that would go on to engulf the entire country and eventually cause regime change.

It is estimated that more than five million Americans participated in the first No Kings protests in June of 2025, and seven million in October of that same year. To exceed the 3.5% threshold, we would need eleven million people to show up in protest of Trump’s gross incompetence and deliberate attempt to set himself up as a dictator.

According to a 2026 report from The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute at Gothenburg University, an independent Swedish research facility and the largest compiler of data on the world’s democracies, America has officially lost its long-term status as a liberal democracy and is hurtling towards dictatorship at a faster rate than either Hungary or Turkey. 

As you might imagine, this is not good.

No Kings | March 28

I suppose it’s somewhat ironic, given that we are getting ready to celebrate 250 years of American democracy this year, that we find ourselves right back where we started, revolting against an autocratic ruler who would be king. On March 28, 2026, Americans in every state and territory around the world are planning to protest the Trump administration’s blatant efforts to dismantle democracy and set themselves up as a fascist government with no accountability to anyone.

Given the state of things in general, from the illegal war in Iran to the federal overreach of ICE, not to mention the approach of the midterm elections, it’s critical that we exceed the threshold of 3.5% and see eleven million protestors out in the streets of America, demanding change.

You might have been thinking, “Maybe I’ll go to the next one. I’ll wait until it’s a bigger deal and then I’ll think about it.” Well, I’d like to propose that if you don’t act now, you may never get another chance. This might very well be our last chance to change the course of America’s destiny. Will we survive or will we crumble and fall? A few hours on a Saturday afternoon are certainly worth trying to maintain a grip on freedom, liberty, and the liberal pursuit of happiness. Do you really want to stay home and be a part of the last generation in America to enjoy freedom from tyranny?

https://www.nokings.org

Click on the link above and find a protest near you. If there isn’t one, consider organizing one yourself. There are people ready and willing to help you. Then show up at the time and place being organized and let your voice be heard.

Sometimes, the most important thing we can do is simply show up. 


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