“And I said, ‘Hey kid, you think that’s oil? Man, that ain’t oil, that’s blood.’ I wonder what he was thinking, when he hit that storm. Or was he just lost in the flood?”
Bruce Springsteen
Crossing the protest threshold of 3.5% to avoid a civil war and induce regime change through peaceful revolution
I’ve never been much for your traditional weekend warrior protest. I find them pretty silly, inconsequential and rarely, if ever, effective. A ragtag bunch of aging Boomers and obnoxious twenty-something’s standing around in the middle of the day with comfortable shoes, organic snacks, and handmade signs, chanting poorly written and barely rhyming slogans while patting each other on the backs for their bravery. It always felt a lot more like virtue signaling than a useful strategy for radical insurgency. If you’ve filed paperwork with the authorities in order to get their permission, you’re not protesting, you’re parading.
Who is this striking fear into the heart of, exactly? Which elected official is this intimidating? We’ve long since departed the realm where the authorities give a rat’s ass what the public thinks. They can’t be shamed. They can’t be embarrassed. They’re no longer beholden to voters—not since Citizens United gave the wealthy the right to buy off the government. So, which group of apathetic voters is it reaching? The people who don’t follow the news or the ones who simply don’t care? What is the point? What is the desired outcome of this weekend soirée?
Unfortunately, the time has finally come when I can no longer afford to sit on the sidelines. I have to get outside of my comfort zone and do something about it. I have to add my number to the group and be counted. I have to join the fray or risk getting lost in the flood.
Next Saturday, March 28, 2026, the third “No Kings” protest will take place in America. The first protest, back in June of 2025, saw five million citizens taking to the streets in protest; the second one in October rose to 7 million, and this time, the hope is that we will finally cross the threshold of 11 million, which would account for 3.5% of the population.
If you’re not familiar with the 3.5% rule, it is based on a finding by Harvard professor Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist who studied authoritarian regimes throughout the 20th century, and discovered that any time at 3.5% of the population came out in active, peaceful protest against an authoritarian government, they almost always fell.
There was something magical about that number that represented a threshold of sorts, whereby a small number could suddenly become a large one. Once the roar of protest rose to a significant enough portion of the electorate, the rest of the country finally sat up and took notice. It turns out, a mere 3.5% is the tipping point.
One could argue that if the protests grew from five million to just seven, we are not yet due to reach eleven or twelve million. It doesn’t really track. What percentage of the population is actually upset enough to blame the current administration, and what percentage of them are willing to cross the threshold into actively protesting their policies in public? It’s not an easy threshold to get people to cross.
There are a lot of former MAGA types who are no doubt disgusted with gas prices, the price of groceries, and yet another useless, expensive foreign war, but that’s not likely to induce them to douse themselves in patchouli oil and join the dirty hippie throng on the town square. Not anytime soon, anyway.
But if enough Americans get off their fat asses and take to the streets, the disgruntled but mildly apathetic might begin to notice and think a change is required in the direction of this country. They might decide to join in the fight to be free. This pointless war of aggression against Iran might just prove to be a bit much. Wrecking the economy and upending the world order just to satisfy one megalomaniac’s ego might finally be a bridge too far for your average American.
The Trump administration would like nothing more than to see the country divided into a civil war, be it cold or hot. They feed off fear and division, not unity. But a civil war is not what is required in this moment. We do not need to defeat the forces of Trumpism by rising up against our neighbor. What we need is a second American Revolution. We need to overthrow this government.
I fear we’re already too late, to be honest. We’ve already allowed this train wreck to go on for far too long, and there’s plenty of evidence that we have crossed the Rubicon into dangerous territory, whereby democracy no longer exists in any sense. We are an oligarchy rushing towards a dictatorship, and we have only ourselves to blame. Is it too late to un-fuck this situation we find ourselves in? It’s hard to say, as these are unprecedented times for our country. But still, I remain hopeful. I don’t know if that’s delusional or wise, but what choice do I have? I have no other alternative.
So a week from yesterday, I am going to get dressed and drive to the old courthouse in town, where a local chapter of Indivisible is organizing a No Kings protest. They were there last time, which I know because I drove by on my way to a job. I honked in solidarity, but that was the extent of my involvement, such as it was.
I haven’t yet decided how I plan to involve myself. Will I bring a camera and document the experience as an objective observer and independent journalist? Will I hide behind that cause, or will I make a sign and join in the fray? I will not join in on the chanting. I don’t do group performances, refusing to sing the national anthem, pledge allegiance, or sing Happy Birthday. I just don’t do it. But I will show up and add my number to the total. I will protest.
I’m even dragging my wife and her sister with me. It’s only three more old people in front of the courthouse on Main Street, but it’s three more than last time, so that’s something. If everyone were to think this way, we could easily surpass 12 million peaceful protesters.
I want to add a note of warning. If you’re planning to protest next Saturday and you’re worried about being identified, don’t complain about people documenting the protest with cameras. The authorities already have cameras everywhere. Photographers can’t avoid faces in a crowd, and I’m not about to blur their faces. Wear a mask or otherwise disguise yourself. It’s not the photographer’s job to protect the identities of people protesting in public. Either show some courage or stay home. If you’re planning to break the law, take your own precautions or be willing to suffer the consequences. This is not a safe space, and no one is protecting you. Don’t put your liability on others. Own your actions.
It’s a revolution, after all, not a book club.